From the Guidelines
At a prevalence of 0.5%, approximately 60 out of 1000 asymptomatic individuals will have false positive test results, and at a prevalence of 2%, approximately 59 out of 1000 asymptomatic individuals will have false positive test results. To determine the number of false positive test results out of 1000 fit tests, we consider the sensitivity and specificity of the test, as well as the prevalence of the condition being tested for in the population. According to the study by 1, the commercially available tests have an estimated pooled sensitivity of 93% and specificity of 97% in symptomatic individuals, but for asymptomatic individuals, the assumed sensitivity is 85% and specificity is 94%. The number of false positives can be estimated based on the prevalence of the condition.
- At a prevalence of 0.5%, in a sample of 1000 asymptomatic individuals who undergo the test, 64 will have a positive test result; of the 64 individuals with a positive result, 4 will be true positives but 60 will be false positives.
- At a prevalence of 2%, in 1000 asymptomatic individuals, 76 individuals will have a positive test result and 17 will be true positives but 59 will be false positives. This information is crucial for understanding the potential outcomes of testing and for making informed decisions about testing strategies, as noted in the study by 1.
From the Research
False Positive Test Results
- The number of false positive test results out of 1000 fit tests is not directly stated in the provided studies.
- However, a study on COVID-19 test performance 2 discusses the relationship between disease prevalence and false positives.
- According to this study, false positives exceeded true positives at <5.3% prevalence, but it does not provide a specific number of false positives out of 1000 tests.
- The other studies provided do not address the topic of false positive test results in the context of fit tests 3, 4, 5, 6.
- Therefore, there is limited information available to determine the exact number of false positive test results out of 1000 fit tests based on the provided evidence.