What is the primary reason for the expansion of malaria transmission zones?

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Last updated: October 3, 2026 • View editorial policy

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Malaria transmission zones: primary driver

Rising global temperatures are the primary reason for the expansion of malaria transmission zones. 1

  • Rationale (prioritizing morbidity/mortality/QOL):

    • High-quality recent guideline-level evidence concludes warming increases climatic suitability for Anopheles vectors, expanding transmission into higher altitudes and temperate margins, thereby increasing populations at risk and potential severe disease burden 1.
    • Projections show northward/altitudinal spread and longer transmission seasons in multiple regions, directly elevating morbidity and mortality risk where immunity is low 1.

  • Why the other options are secondary or less supported:

    • Increased urbanization: contributes to breeding sites but is a non-climate factor integrated into models; not the primary global driver of zone expansion per current consensus 1.
    • Decrease in predator species: limited direct evidence as a leading global driver in guidelines.
    • Enhanced drug resistance: worsens outcomes where malaria exists but does not primarily expand geographic suitability; climate suitability governs spread zones 1.

Answer: Rising global temperatures.

References

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