What is the current global prevalence of diabetes and the predicted number of patients over the next 10, 20, and 30 years?

Global Diabetes Prevalence and Future Projections

Currently, there are approximately 537 million people (10.5% of the global population) living with diabetes worldwide, and this number is projected to reach 783 million by 2045, representing a 46% increase over the next two decades. 1

Current Global Diabetes Statistics (2021-2023)

• The worldwide prevalence of diabetes in adults aged 20-79 years was estimated at 537 million people (10.5% of all adults in this age range) in 2021 1, 2
• Approximately 45% of people with diabetes worldwide remain undiagnosed 1
• Type 2 diabetes accounts for 96.0% of all diabetes cases and 95.4% of diabetes-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) globally 3
• About 6.7 million adults worldwide died from diabetes-related causes in 2021 1
• Global healthcare expenditure on diabetes was approximately $966 billion in 2021 1

Regional Distribution

• North Africa and the Middle East have the highest age-standardized diabetes prevalence at 9.3% 3
• At the regional level, Oceania has the highest prevalence at 12.3% 3
• China and India have the largest number of people with diabetes:
  • China: 140.9 million people (2021) 1
  • India: 74.2 million people (2021) 1
• In the United States, 37.3 million people (11.3% of the population) have diabetes 1

Future Projections

• By 2030, global diabetes prevalence is expected to reach 643 million people 2, 3

• By 2045, projections indicate:

  • 783 million people worldwide will have diabetes 1, 2
  • Global prevalence rate will increase to 12.5% 2
  • China will have 174.4 million people with diabetes 1
  • India will have 124.9 million people with diabetes 1

• By 2050, more alarming projections show:

  • More than 1.31 billion people worldwide will have diabetes 3
  • Two super-regions will have age-standardized diabetes prevalence rates greater than 10%:
    • North Africa and Middle East: 16.8% 3
    • Latin America and Caribbean: 11.3% 3
  • 89 countries (43.6% of 204 countries and territories) will have an age-standardized rate greater than 10% 3

Risk Factors and Contributors

• High body mass index (BMI) is responsible for 52.2% of global type 2 diabetes DALYs 3
• The contribution of high BMI to type 2 diabetes DALYs rose by 24.3% worldwide between 1990 and 2021 3
• Prediabetes affects an estimated 352.1 million people worldwide, with projections reaching 531.6 million by 2045 4
• Diabetes disproportionately affects low and middle-income countries, which account for 77% of all people with diabetes worldwide 4

Health and Economic Impact

• Diabetes is the fourth most common cause of death in the developed world 1
• The annual per capita healthcare costs for individuals with diabetes are approximately 2.3-fold higher than for those without diabetes 1
• In the United States, the cost of diabetes increased from $245 billion in 2012 to $327 billion by 2017 1

Clinical Implications

• The increasing prevalence of diabetes will significantly impact healthcare systems globally, requiring enhanced prevention strategies and treatment resources 3
• Early identification and management of type 2 diabetes is crucial, as it is largely preventable and potentially reversible in some cases if identified early 3
• Understanding population-specific risk factor profiles is essential for developing targeted prevention and control strategies 3