What is the annual percentage growth rate of cancer in India?

Cancer Growth Rate in India

The annual percentage increase in cancer incidence in India is approximately 0.9-1.2% based on recent national registry data, with the total cancer burden projected to increase by 12.8% from 2020 to 2025. 1

Current Cancer Burden Statistics

The cancer landscape in India shows significant growth patterns:

• Total incident cases in 2022: 1,461,427 cases (crude rate: 100.4 per 100,000 population) 1
• Projected cases for 2025: Expected to increase by 12.8% compared to 2020 baseline 1
• Lifetime risk: One in nine people in India will develop cancer during their lifetime 1

Temporal Trends in Cancer Incidence

The age-standardized incidence rate has shown variable patterns across different cancer types from 1990 to 2016:

• Increasing cancers: Breast cancer incidence increased by 40.7% (95% UI 7.0-85.6) over this 26-year period 2
• Decreasing cancers: Stomach cancer decreased by 39.7%, cervical cancer by 39.7%, esophageal cancer by 31.2%, lip and oral cavity cancer by 6.4%, and leukemia by 16.1% 2
• Overall trend: While absolute numbers are rising due to population growth and aging, the age-standardized incidence rate has not changed substantially from 1990 to 2016 2

Regional Variation in Cancer Growth

Cancer incidence shows marked geographic heterogeneity:

• Highest incidence districts: Aizawl district (269.4 per 100,000 in males) and Papumpare district (219.8 per 100,000 in females) 3
• Fastest growing region: Kamrup urban showed the highest annual percentage change of 3.8% (P < .05) 3
• State-level variation: The age-standardized cancer DALY rate varied 2.6-fold across Indian states in 2016 2

Leading Cancer Sites Contributing to Growth

The five most common cancers projected for 2020-2025 are:

1. Breast cancer (10.5% of total cancer burden) - showing significant upward trend 4, 2
2. Lung cancer (10.6% of total burden) 4
3. Mouth cancer (5.7% of total burden) 4
4. Cervix uteri (5.2% of burden) - showing downward trend in incidence 4, 2
5. Tongue cancer 3

Projected Future Burden

The cancer burden measured in DALYs demonstrates substantial growth:

• 2021 projection: 26.7 million DALYs 4
• 2025 projection: 29.8 million DALYs (11.6% increase over 4 years) 4
• Absolute case projection: 1,392,179 incident cases expected in 2020 3

Key Drivers of Cancer Growth

Several factors contribute to the increasing cancer burden:

• Population aging: The proportion of cancer deaths increased from 4.15% in 1990 to 8.3% in 2016, doubling the contribution of cancer to total mortality 2
• Tobacco use: Remains the leading risk factor, attributable to 10.9% of cancer DALYs in 2016 2
• Late-stage presentation: Approximately 50% of patients present with locally advanced disease, limiting treatment effectiveness 5
• Changing risk factor profiles: Increasing obesity prevalence and decreasing physical activity contribute to rising incidence of certain cancers 6

Important Caveats

The growth rate estimates have limitations:

• Cancer is not a notifiable disease in India, leading to potential underestimation of true incidence rates 5
• Data quality varies significantly between urban and rural areas, where 70% of the population resides with limited cancer registry coverage 5
• The 12.8% projected increase from 2020 to 2025 reflects both true incidence growth and improved detection/reporting systems 1