What are the chances of spontaneous passage of a ureteral (urinary tract) stone based on its size?

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From the Guidelines

The chances of spontaneously passing a ureteral stone are significantly influenced by its size, with stones ≤5 mm having a higher likelihood of passage, estimated at 68% 1. When considering the spontaneous passage of ureteral stones, several factors come into play, but size is the most critical determinant.

  • Stones ≤5 mm have a relatively high chance of passing spontaneously, with an estimated 68% passage rate, as indicated by a meta-analysis of five patient groups 1.
  • For stones between 5 mm and 10 mm, the spontaneous passage rate decreases, with an estimated 47% of stones passing spontaneously, based on an analysis of three patient groups 1.
  • The location of the stone within the ureter also plays a role, with stones in the lower ureter having a better chance of spontaneous passage compared to those in the upper ureter.
  • Pain management is crucial during this period and may include NSAIDs like ibuprofen or naproxen, and in some cases, alpha-blockers such as tamsulosin may be prescribed to facilitate stone passage 1.
  • Adequate hydration, aiming for at least 2-3 liters of water daily, is essential to help flush the stone.
  • If a stone hasn't passed within 4-6 weeks, or if complications arise, urological intervention such as ureteroscopy or extracorporeal shock wave lithotripsy may be necessary, with both SWL and URS being acceptable first-line treatments, though URS yields significantly greater stone-free rates for the majority of stone stratifications 1.

From the Research

Chances of Spontaneously Passing a Ureteral Stone Based on Size

  • The chances of spontaneously passing a ureteral stone are significantly influenced by the size of the stone, with smaller stones having a higher likelihood of passing on their own 2, 3, 4.
  • According to a study published in European Radiology, the spontaneous passage rates for stones of different sizes are:
    • 0-2 mm: 98%
    • 3 mm: 98%
    • 4 mm: 81%
    • 5 mm: 65%
    • 6 mm: 33%
    • ≥6.5 mm: 9% 2
  • Another study published in AJR. American Journal of Roentgenology found similar results, with spontaneous passage rates of:
    • 1 mm: 87%
    • 2-4 mm: 76%
    • 5-7 mm: 60%
    • 7-9 mm: 48%
    • 9 mm: 25% 3

  • A study published in BJU International also reported that stone size is a significant predictor of spontaneous stone passage, with rates of:
    • <5 mm: 89%
    • 5-7 mm: 49%
    • 7 mm: 29% 4

Factors Influencing Spontaneous Stone Passage

  • In addition to stone size, other factors such as stone location, hydronephrosis, and medical expulsive therapy (MET) can influence the likelihood of spontaneous stone passage 2, 3, 4, 5.
  • A study published in The Journal of Urology found that serum C-reactive protein and white blood count can also be used to predict spontaneous stone passage in patients with 4 to 10 mm distal ureteral stones 6.

Professional Medical Disclaimer

This information is intended for healthcare professionals. Any medical decision-making should rely on clinical judgment and independently verified information. The content provided herein does not replace professional discretion and should be considered supplementary to established clinical guidelines. Healthcare providers should verify all information against primary literature and current practice standards before application in patient care. Dr.Oracle assumes no liability for clinical decisions based on this content.

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