What is the risk of measles outbreaks in this area?

Measles Outbreak Risk Assessment

I cannot provide specific information about measles outbreak risk for [LOCATION] because no geographic location was specified in your question. However, I can provide you with the framework for assessing measles outbreak risk in any area.

General Measles Outbreak Risk Framework

Any community with suboptimal vaccination coverage faces significant measles outbreak risk, as even a single confirmed measles case constitutes an urgent public health situation requiring immediate intervention. 1

Key Risk Factors for Measles Outbreaks

High-Risk Area Definitions

According to the CDC, an area is considered high-risk for measles when it meets any of these criteria: 1

• Counties with large inner city populations 1
• Counties where recent measles outbreaks have occurred among unvaccinated preschool-aged children 1
• Counties with more than five measles cases among preschool-aged children during each of the last 5 years 1

Population Vulnerability Indicators

• Underimmunized close-knit communities represent the highest risk, accounting for 88% of all cases in the 2019 U.S. outbreak 2
• Unvaccinated travelers who acquire measles abroad and return to communities with low vaccination rates pose significant transmission risk 2
• Approximately 5% of children who receive only one dose of MMR vaccine fail to develop immunity, creating pockets of susceptibility 1

Current Global Context

Measles remains a major global public health threat with over 100,000 deaths annually worldwide, primarily affecting Africa, South America, and Asia. 3

• The disease is highly contagious with mortality rates exceeding 5% in developing countries 3
• Recent outbreaks in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe, and the USA demonstrate how easily measles can re-enter communities when population immunity is not sustained 4
• The 2019 U.S. outbreak saw 704 cases—the largest number since 1994—with 71% occurring in unvaccinated persons 2

Critical Outbreak Response Principles

Immediate Action Required

Contact your local or state health department immediately when any suspected measles case occurs, as one confirmed case represents an urgent public health situation. 1

• Control activities should not be delayed pending laboratory confirmation 1
• Prompt vaccination of susceptible persons at risk for exposure may prevent dissemination 1

Vaccination Requirements During Outbreaks

• All persons without acceptable evidence of immunity should be vaccinated or excluded from outbreak settings (schools, day care facilities, hospitals, clinics) 1
• Persons exempted from vaccination for any reason must be excluded from involved institutions until 21 days after rash onset in the last case 1
• Mass revaccination of entire communities is generally not necessary 1

Common Pitfalls to Avoid

• Do not assume birth before 1957 guarantees immunity—during outbreaks, MMR vaccination should be considered for pre-1957 individuals who may be exposed 1
• Do not delay outbreak control measures while waiting for laboratory confirmation 1
• Do not underestimate international travel risk—increased global measles activity poses ongoing risk to U.S. elimination, particularly with unvaccinated travelers 2

To Assess Your Specific Location

Contact your local or state health department for: 1

• Current measles case counts and outbreak status
• Local vaccination coverage rates
• Specific community risk factors
• Tailored outbreak control strategies