Average Global Life Expectancy and Strategies for Improvement
Global life expectancy reached 73.0 years in 2017 (up from 65.6 years in 1990), but healthy life expectancy (HALE) only reached 63.3 years, leaving approximately 9.7 years lived in poor health—a gap that continues to widen despite overall longevity gains. 1
Current Global Life Expectancy Data
Global average life expectancy increased by 7.4 years between 1990-2017, rising from 65.6 to 73.0 years, with variations ranging from 5.1 additional years in high-income countries to 12.0 years in low-income countries 1
Healthy life expectancy (HALE) increased by only 6.3 years during the same period (from 57.0 to 63.3 years), demonstrating that people are living longer but spending more time in poor health 1
The gap between total life expectancy and HALE grew from 8.62 years in 1995 to 9.72 years in 2017, indicating that longevity gains are not translating proportionally into healthy years 2
Regional disparities are stark: Japan leads with HALE of 74.5 years, while sub-Saharan African countries have HALE below 35 years, primarily due to HIV/AIDS 3
Gender Differences in Life Expectancy
Women live longer than men in 180 of 195 countries, with the gap ranging from 1.4 years in Algeria to 11.9 years in Ukraine 1
Women spend a greater proportion of their additional years in poor health compared to men, with the percentage of extra years spent in disability varying dramatically by country—from less than 20% in Bosnia and Herzegovina to 100% in Bahrain 1
The male-female gap is lower for HALE than for total life expectancy, suggesting women's longevity advantage comes at the cost of more years with disability 3
Projected Trends Through 2040
Global life expectancy is forecasted to increase by 4.4 years for both sexes by 2040 (reaching approximately 77.4 years), but trajectories could range from a gain of 7.8 years in better health scenarios to essentially no gain in worse health scenarios 4
By 2040,59 countries including China are projected to surpass 80 years life expectancy, while Central African Republic, Lesotho, Somalia, and Zimbabwe will remain below 65 years 4
Only 18% of countries are projected to achieve both improved life expectancy and HALE while simultaneously reducing the gap between them, indicating most gains will be in quantity rather than quality of life 2
Evidence-Based Strategies to Increase Life Expectancy and Healthy Years
Lifestyle Modification Interventions
The EPIC study demonstrated a 78% reduction in risk of developing major chronic diseases through four modifiable factors: BMI <30 kg/m², never smoking, ≥3.5 hours/week physical activity, and healthy dietary patterns (high fruit/vegetables/whole grains, low meat) 5
A single healthy lifestyle factor alone reduces chronic disease risk by 50%, while all four factors together reduce diabetes risk by 93% 5
These interventions can add healthy life years without requiring functional foods, nutraceuticals, or supplements, representing a practical, cost-effective approach 5
Addressing Modifiable Risk Factors
Metabolic risks amenable to healthcare intervention (high blood pressure, high fasting glucose) show the largest gaps between current trajectories and better health scenarios in most countries 4
Population-level interventions targeting tobacco, high BMI, and ambient particulate matter pollution demonstrate substantial potential for reducing years of life lost across all income levels 4
In sub-Saharan Africa, poverty-related risks (unsafe water/sanitation, household air pollution, child malnutrition) remain the primary targets for improving both life expectancy and HALE through 2040 4
Disease-Specific Priorities by Development Level
High-income countries should prioritize: Reductions in age-standardized death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers, which are the dominant drivers of life expectancy gains 6
Low-income countries should prioritize: Child deaths from diarrhea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes, which remain in the top five causes of death for children under 5 years 6
All countries must address: Seven substantial causes showing increasing age-standardized death rates—HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anemias 6
Critical Challenges to Address
The Healthy Life Years Paradox
In France, healthy life years decreased by 12 months between 2008-2010 (from 62.7 to 61.9 years for men, 64.6 to 63.5 years for women), representing a 1% net loss despite overall life expectancy gains 5
The median healthy life years across 11 main European countries was only 62.4-62.6 years, leaving approximately 20 years of life in a chronic disease state 5
Germany had the lowest healthy life years in 2008 (55.8 years for men, 57.4 years for women), demonstrating that high-income status does not guarantee quality longevity 5
Emerging Threats
HIV/AIDS poses a potential 120% increase in years of life lost globally from 2016-2040 under worse health scenarios, jeopardizing decades of progress if momentum is lost 4
Non-communicable diseases are forecast to account for 67.3% of years of life lost globally by 2040, with the shift occurring even in lower-income countries 4
Type 2 diabetes prevalence in youth has doubled in some populations, with rates increasing from 7.3 to 13.9 cases per 1,000 children in Japan between the late 1970s and early 1990s 5
Key Clinical and Public Health Pitfalls to Avoid
Focusing solely on life expectancy without addressing healthy life expectancy leads to populations living longer but spending more years with disability and chronic disease 2, 1
Applying reductionist approaches to nutrition and health interventions rather than holistic dietary patterns misses the synergistic effects of whole foods and comprehensive lifestyle modifications 5
Assuming progress is inevitable: Six independent drivers of health are forecast to worsen by 2040, including high BMI, requiring deliberate policy action to prevent deterioration 4
Neglecting the biological mechanisms of aging: Addressing aging itself through interventions targeting autophagy, mitochondrial function, cellular senescence, and DNA methylation may prevent multiple age-related diseases simultaneously rather than treating them individually 5
Underestimating the impact of social determinants: Social isolation is a significant predictor of mortality in older adults, and multicomplexity (intersection of chronic conditions with social factors) fundamentally alters health trajectories 7