What is a waterfall trial?

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Last updated: April 11, 2025View editorial policy

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From the Guidelines

Waterfall trials should be designed to include spider plots or swimmer plots in efficacy descriptions to better report kinetics of response, in addition to traditional waterfall plots, as recommended by the American Society of Clinical Oncology-Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer statement 1. When designing a waterfall trial, it is essential to consider the limitations of traditional waterfall plots, which only report the patients' best overall response and do not capture the temporal relationship of response after treatment is administered.

  • Spider plots can illustrate change in tumor burden over time within individual patients and include symbols indicating when new lesions appear, but their interpretation can be difficult when the number of patients is large and the representation of patients with progressive disease versus those who have stable disease is imbalanced.
  • Swimmer plots can depict the treatment course of individual patients and illustrate time-to-event end points, providing more meaningful information about efficacy over time. To implement a waterfall trial effectively, it is crucial to clearly define response criteria, establish appropriate timeframes between treatment changes, and determine stopping rules, while also considering the use of spider plots or swimmer plots to provide a more comprehensive understanding of treatment efficacy, as suggested by the Journal of Clinical Oncology 1. The use of these plots can help identify which treatments work best for which patient subgroups, making waterfall trials particularly valuable for chronic conditions requiring personalized approaches. Key considerations for waterfall trials include:
  • Defining response criteria and stopping rules
  • Establishing appropriate timeframes between treatment changes
  • Using spider plots or swimmer plots to report kinetics of response
  • Ensuring scientific rigor through randomization at each treatment stage, as discussed in the Journal of Clinical Oncology 1.

From the Research

Waterfall Trial Overview

  • The concept of a waterfall trial is not directly mentioned in the provided studies 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
  • However, the studies discuss various clinical trials and their results, which can be related to the concept of a waterfall trial.
  • A waterfall trial typically refers to a clinical trial design where patients are treated with a series of therapies in a sequential manner, with each therapy being added or replaced based on the patient's response to the previous therapy.

Clinical Trial Designs

  • The studies provide examples of different clinical trial designs, such as randomized, placebo-controlled trials 3, 4 and open-label studies 4.
  • These designs are used to evaluate the efficacy and safety of various therapies, including pioglitazone, sitagliptin, metformin, and sulfonylurea, in patients with type 2 diabetes.
  • The results of these trials can inform the design of future waterfall trials, where patients may be treated with a series of therapies in a sequential manner.

Therapy Sequencing

  • The studies discuss the sequencing of therapies in patients with type 2 diabetes, including the addition of pioglitazone to metformin and sulfonylurea therapy 5, 6.
  • The results of these studies suggest that the sequencing of therapies can impact patient outcomes, including glycemic control and insulin sensitivity.
  • This information can be used to inform the design of waterfall trials, where the sequencing of therapies is a critical component of the trial design.

Limitations and Future Directions

  • The provided studies have several limitations, including the use of surrogate endpoints and the lack of long-term follow-up data.
  • Future studies should aim to address these limitations and provide more comprehensive data on the efficacy and safety of various therapies in patients with type 2 diabetes.
  • The design of future waterfall trials should take into account the results of these studies and aim to optimize patient outcomes through the sequential use of therapies.

Professional Medical Disclaimer

This information is intended for healthcare professionals. Any medical decision-making should rely on clinical judgment and independently verified information. The content provided herein does not replace professional discretion and should be considered supplementary to established clinical guidelines. Healthcare providers should verify all information against primary literature and current practice standards before application in patient care. Dr.Oracle assumes no liability for clinical decisions based on this content.

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