When did I ovulate, given my luteinizing hormone (LH) levels, estrogen (E1g) levels, progesterone (Pdg) levels, and symptoms of nipple sensitivity, erect nipples, flushed cheeks, and body warmth on cycle day 15, and what is the current status of my egg's viability for fertilization?

Timing of Ovulation Based on Your Hormone Data

Based on your LH surge pattern peaking at 45 on CD14 at 9:30am and subsequent decline, you most likely ovulated in the late evening of CD14 or early morning of CD15 (approximately 24-36 hours after your LH peak). 1, 2, 3

Analysis of Your Ovulation Timeline

LH Surge Pattern

• Your LH peaked at 45 on CD14 at 9:30am, which represents your true LH surge 1, 4
• The subsequent decline to 22 by 7:30pm CD14 and further to 12.1 by 10:30pm confirms the surge had passed 1
• Ovulation typically occurs 24-36 hours after the LH surge begins, placing your ovulation window in the late evening of CD14 through early morning CD15 3, 5

Supporting Hormonal Evidence

• Your E1G (estrogen) peaked at 258.6 on CD15, which is consistent with the pre-ovulatory estrogen surge that triggers the LH surge 3
• Your PdG (progesterone metabolite) remained low at 1.1-1.6 through CD15, which is expected immediately before and during ovulation 1, 3
• The estrogen rise from 176.2 (CD13) → 215.1 (CD14) → 258.6 (CD15) followed by the LH surge is the classic pre-ovulatory pattern 3

Clinical Symptoms Correlation

• Your egg white cervical mucus (EWCM) on CD14 aligns perfectly with peak fertility, as cervical mucus quality peaks ±1-2 days of ovulation in 78-91% of cycles 2
• The cramping on CD14 into early CD15 (mittelschmerz) is consistent with follicular rupture during ovulation 5

Your Current Symptoms on CD15

Why You Feel Hot with Nipple Changes

• Your body temperature elevation and flushed cheeks are due to rising progesterone after ovulation 5
• Basal body temperature rises 0.5-1°F after ovulation due to progesterone's thermogenic effect 5
• Nipple sensitivity, erect nipples, and body warmth are progesterone-mediated symptoms that begin immediately post-ovulation 3
• These symptoms appearing on CD15 with declining LH (18.6 → 15.2) confirm you are in the immediate post-ovulatory phase 3, 5

Egg Viability Window

Critical Timing for Fertilization

• Your egg remains viable for only 12-24 hours after ovulation 3
• Given ovulation likely occurred late CD14/early CD15, your egg is currently viable through the evening of CD15 at the latest 3
• Sperm can survive 3-5 days in fertile cervical mucus, so intercourse from CD11-CD15 has conception potential 2

Optimal Intercourse Timing

• The highest conception rates occur with intercourse on the day of ovulation or the 2 days before 2
• Your fertile window extended from approximately CD12-CD15, with peak fertility on CD13-CD14 based on your EWCM and LH surge 1, 2

Important Caveats

Progesterone Confirmation Needed

• While your LH surge and symptoms suggest ovulation occurred, true ovulation confirmation requires PdG levels >5 μg/mL sustained for 3+ days during the luteal phase (approximately CD18-CD22) 1
• Continue monitoring PdG on CD18-CD22 to confirm successful ovulation, as 16/40 women in one study had LH surges but inadequate progesterone rises 1

Individual Variation

• Ovulation timing can vary by ±2 days even with clear LH surges 2, 4
• Your age affects cycle phase lengths, with follicular phases shortening and luteal phases lengthening with advancing age 4