Positive Predictive Value of FIT in Patients with Family History of Colorectal Cancer
A positive FIT result carries high positive predictive value (PPV) for significant colorectal neoplasia regardless of family history status, and colonoscopy remains the sole recommended follow-up test without requiring additional risk stratification. 1
Understanding PPV in the FIT Context
The positive predictive value represents the probability that a patient with a positive FIT actually has significant colorectal neoplasia (cancer or advanced adenomas). When FIT returns positive, the PPV for significant neoplasia is sufficiently high to justify immediate colonoscopic evaluation regardless of other clinical features like family history or anemia. 2, 3
Key Performance Characteristics
- The PPV of FIT is influenced by the hemoglobin cutoff threshold used—lower thresholds (≤20 mg/g) offer better sensitivity for colorectal cancer while maintaining acceptable specificity. 1
- Quantitative FITs are preferred over qualitative tests because they allow adjustment of cutoff concentrations and provide improved quality control with automated reading. 1
- The high PPV of positive FIT results means that colonoscopy directly evaluates the entire colorectal mucosa and simultaneously allows removal of significant neoplasia when detected, making it the optimal and only recommended follow-up test. 2, 3, 4
Family History as a Modifying Factor
Caution should be exercised when interpreting FIT results in individuals with family history of colorectal cancer, as this population may have different test performance characteristics. 1
Why Family History Matters
- Patients with family history of colorectal cancer have inherently elevated baseline risk for colorectal neoplasia, which affects the pre-test probability and consequently the PPV. 1
- Approximately 28% of early-onset colorectal cancer patients have a family history of CRC, and about 13% have hereditary syndromes. 1
- Despite these considerations, the recommendation for colonoscopy following positive FIT remains unchanged—family history does not alter the management algorithm. 2, 3, 4
Clinical Implications for Management
Timing Requirements
- Healthcare systems should aim for ≥95% of follow-up colonoscopies to be performed within 6 months of a positive FIT result, with at least 80% offered appointments within 3 months. 1, 2, 4
- Delays beyond 6 months are associated with increased risk of advanced adenomas, colorectal cancer, and advanced-stage disease. 1, 5
- Colonoscopy delayed beyond 270 days (9 months) shows significantly increased odds of colorectal cancer (OR 1.48,95% CI 1.05-2.08) and advanced-stage disease (OR 2.79,95% CI 1.03-7.57). 1, 6
- Delays beyond 12 months show profound risk increases with OR 2.25 for any colorectal cancer and OR 3.22 for advanced-stage disease. 7
What NOT to Do
- Do not order upper endoscopy (EGD) routinely based solely on a positive FIT result. 2, 3
- In the absence of iron deficiency anemia or signs/symptoms of upper gastrointestinal pathology, a positive FIT with negative colonoscopy should NOT prompt upper gastrointestinal evaluation. 1, 2, 3
- Do not use FIT as a diagnostic test in symptomatic patients with visible rectal bleeding—these patients require direct colonoscopy. 1, 2
- Do not delay colonoscopy to perform risk stratification based on family history or other factors. 2, 3
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
Misunderstanding PPV in Different Risk Populations
- While family history increases baseline colorectal cancer risk, it does not change the fundamental management principle: positive FIT requires colonoscopy. 1, 2, 4
- The PPV may be numerically higher in family history patients due to elevated pre-test probability, but this reinforces rather than contradicts the need for prompt colonoscopy. 1
Medication and Dietary Concerns
- Unlike guaiac-based tests, FIT is not confounded by dietary intake of foods with peroxidase activity, and patients do NOT need to adjust diet when using FIT-based screening. 1, 2
- Aspirin, warfarin, and clopidogrel do not negatively impact FIT test characteristics and may actually improve sensitivity without decreasing specificity. 1, 2
System-Level Barriers
- Patient decline of colonoscopy is the most common reason (35.2%) for lack of follow-up after positive FIT. 8
- Programs should track all positive FIT results and attempt outreach in 100% of patients within ≤2 weeks of test results to improve adherence. 1, 2
- System-level navigation programs that contact patients by telephone to schedule appointments significantly increase adherence to colonoscopy follow-up. 1, 2
Special Circumstances
Recent Prior Colonoscopy
- If a patient has positive FIT but underwent colonoscopy recently (before they would be due for repeat examination), generally offer repeat colonoscopy. 1, 2
- Additional considerations include clinical context (other worrisome signs, symptoms, or laboratory values), patient risk factors for advanced neoplasia, and prior colonoscopy quality (bowel preparation adequacy, endoscopist's adenoma detection rate). 1