What are the odds of having a second child with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)?

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Last updated: April 15, 2025View editorial policy

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From the Guidelines

The odds of having a second autistic child are significantly higher for parents who already have one child with autism, with a recurrence risk of approximately 18.7% for full siblings, as reported in a recent prospective longitudinal study 1.

Key Factors Influencing Recurrence Risk

  • Genetic makeup: The strong genetic component of autism contributes to the increased risk, with heritability estimated to be around 90% 1.
  • Identified genetic causes: If the first child has identified genetic causes for their autism, this may impact the risk for subsequent siblings.
  • Family history: Multiple family members with autism can increase the risk for subsequent siblings.

Recurrence Risk Estimates

  • For full siblings: approximately 18.7% 1.
  • For identical twins: much higher, around 60-90% concordance rate.

Importance of Genetic Counseling

Parents considering family planning after having a child with autism may benefit from genetic counseling to better understand their specific risk factors and make informed decisions.

Environmental Factors

While the strong genetic component of autism is a significant factor, environmental factors may also play a role in how these genetic predispositions are expressed.

From the Research

Recurrence Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder

  • The recurrence risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) in families with one affected child ranges from 3% to 18.7% 2.
  • A study found that the odds of having another child with ASD increased by 16.2 folds if at least one parent had ASD, and by 7.4 folds if the affected child had intellectual disability 3.
  • The risk of ASD recurrence is higher in siblings, with an 8.4-fold increase in risk compared to unaffected families, and a 17.4-fold increase in risk for childhood autism 4.
  • The recurrence risk also varies by sex, with a significant difference in sibling ASD recurrence risk observed 4.

Factors Influencing Recurrence Risk

  • Perceived genetic causes of ASD and family history of ASD are significant predictors of recurrence risk perceptions among parents of children with ASD 2.
  • The broad-sense heritability of ASD without intellectual disability is estimated to be 64.6%, suggesting a greater genetic basis for this subtype of ASD 3.
  • The risk of ASD recurrence is also influenced by the degree of relatedness, with a 2-fold increase in risk observed for cousin recurrence 4.

Implications for Families

  • Understanding the recurrence risk of ASD is essential for family planning, prenatal preparation, and future child management 2.
  • Healthcare providers should discuss absolute and relative recurrence risks, as well as genetic causes of ASD, with families to facilitate informed decision-making 2.

References

Guideline

Guideline Directed Topic Overview

Dr.Oracle Medical Advisory Board & Editors, 2025

Research

The Familial Risk of Autism Spectrum Disorder with and without Intellectual Disability.

Autism research : official journal of the International Society for Autism Research, 2020

Research

Recurrence Risk of Autism in Siblings and Cousins: A Multinational, Population-Based Study.

Journal of the American Academy of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, 2019

Professional Medical Disclaimer

This information is intended for healthcare professionals. Any medical decision-making should rely on clinical judgment and independently verified information. The content provided herein does not replace professional discretion and should be considered supplementary to established clinical guidelines. Healthcare providers should verify all information against primary literature and current practice standards before application in patient care. Dr.Oracle assumes no liability for clinical decisions based on this content.

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