What are the 10, 20, and 30 year probabilities of biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and disease-specific death in a patient with prostate cancer, given a pre-prostatectomy Prostate-Specific Antigen (PSA) level of 4.0, pathological findings of pT2c, Gleason score 3+4, cribriform pattern, and tumor volume of 0.73cc in a 37cc gland?

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Last updated: April 19, 2025View editorial policy

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From the Guidelines

Based on the provided pathological data, I can estimate the following probabilities for biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and disease-specific death for this prostate cancer case: the 10-year probability of biochemical recurrence is approximately 15-20%, with this risk increasing to 25-30% at 20 years and 30-35% at 30 years. For metastasis, the estimated probabilities are 5-10% at 10 years, 10-15% at 20 years, and 15-20% at 30 years. The disease-specific mortality risk is relatively low at approximately 2-5% at 10 years, 5-10% at 20 years, and 10-15% at 30 years. These estimates are based on several favorable prognostic factors including pT2c staging (organ-confined disease), negative surgical margins, absence of intraductal carcinoma (IDC), and absence of lymphovascular invasion, as supported by the guidelines from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network 1. However, the presence of cribriform pattern in all tumors is an adverse feature that increases the risk of progression despite the relatively low total tumor volume (0.73cc in a 37cc gland) 1. The Gleason score of 3+4=7 (Grade Group 2) in all tumors and the PSA increase from 1.8 to 4.0 in the year before surgery suggest moderate aggressiveness. Regular PSA monitoring is recommended every 3-6 months for the first 2 years and then annually thereafter, with consideration of adjuvant therapy if PSA becomes detectable, as per the guidelines for prostate cancer management 1.

Some key points to consider in the management of this patient include:

  • The importance of regular PSA monitoring to detect any signs of biochemical recurrence early, as emphasized in the guidelines for prostate cancer management 1.
  • The consideration of adjuvant therapy if PSA becomes detectable, taking into account the patient's overall health and preferences.
  • The need for ongoing surveillance for metastasis and disease-specific death, given the estimated probabilities of these events over time.
  • The potential impact of the cribriform pattern and Gleason score on the patient's prognosis, and the need for careful consideration of these factors in treatment planning, as discussed in the study on prostate-specific antigen working group guidelines 1.

Overall, the management of this patient will require careful consideration of the estimated probabilities of biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and disease-specific death, as well as the patient's individual characteristics and preferences.

From the Research

Biochemical Recurrence Probability

  • The provided studies do not offer a direct calculation of the 10,20, and 30-year probability of biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and disease-specific death for prostate cancer based on the given patient data 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
  • However, study 6 suggests that PSA doubling time (PSADT) and absolute PSA values can predict metastasis-free survival in men with biochemically recurrent prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.
  • The patient's PSA level 1 year before radical prostatectomy was 1.8, and immediately before prostatectomy was 4.0, which may indicate a rising PSA level, but the PSADT is not provided.

Risk Factors

  • The patient's pathology results show an index tumor of 3+4 in a 60:40 ratio, with two composite tumors also 3+4 and 60:40 ratio, presence of cribriform in all tumors, pT2c, total volume of tumors 0.73cc in a 37cc gland, large negative margins, absence of IDC, and absence of lymphovascular invasion.
  • These factors may be used to estimate the risk of biochemical recurrence, metastasis, and disease-specific death, but a specific calculation is not provided in the studies 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Treatment Options

  • The studies discuss various treatment options for biochemical recurrence, including salvage radiation therapy, androgen deprivation therapy, and high-intensity focused ultrasound 2, 3, 4, 5.
  • However, the optimal treatment strategy for this patient would depend on various factors, including the patient's overall health, preferences, and risk stratification, which is not provided in the studies 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.

Professional Medical Disclaimer

This information is intended for healthcare professionals. Any medical decision-making should rely on clinical judgment and independently verified information. The content provided herein does not replace professional discretion and should be considered supplementary to established clinical guidelines. Healthcare providers should verify all information against primary literature and current practice standards before application in patient care. Dr.Oracle assumes no liability for clinical decisions based on this content.

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