Fertile Window Assessment Based on Your Hormone Levels
Based on your cycle day 9 hormone values, you are NOT yet in your fertile window. Your estrogen (E1g) is still relatively low at 8.5 ng/mL, your LH remains suppressed at 0.1 IU/L, and most importantly, your progesterone (Pdg) is already elevated at 6.6 ng/mL on cycle day 9, which is abnormally early and suggests either anovulation or irregular hormonal patterns rather than approaching ovulation. 1, 2
Understanding Your Hormone Pattern
Your hormone trajectory shows concerning features that do not follow a typical ovulatory pattern:
Elevated early progesterone: Progesterone (Pdg) of 3.2 ng/mL on CD5 rising to 6.6 ng/mL on CD9 is abnormal, as progesterone should remain low (<5 ng/mL) throughout the follicular phase until after ovulation occurs. 2, 3
Suppressed LH: Your LH values (0.5 on CD5, 0.1 on CD9) are extremely low and show no upward trend. The fertile window begins when LH starts rising toward its surge, typically reaching 20-40 IU/L at peak. 2, 4, 3
Minimal estrogen rise: E1g increased only from 6.2 to 8.5 ng/mL between CD5 and CD9. In normal ovulatory cycles, estrogen should show a more pronounced rise (often doubling or tripling) as the dominant follicle matures before ovulation. 2, 3
Erratic FSH: FSH jumped from 8.7 on CD5 to 12.2 on CD7, then dropped to 2.4 on CD9. This erratic pattern does not follow the typical gradual decline expected in the follicular phase. 3
What Defines the Fertile Window
The fertile window encompasses approximately 6 days: the 5 days before ovulation plus the day of ovulation itself. 1, 2
Key markers that you are entering the fertile window include:
Rising estrogen (E1g): Should increase substantially (typically to 15-30+ ng/mL) as the dominant follicle matures. 2, 3
LH surge initiation: LH begins rising 1-3 days before peak, with the fertile window starting an average of 2.7 days before the LH surge. 2, 4
Low progesterone: Pdg must remain <5 ng/mL throughout the follicular phase; elevation before ovulation indicates the cycle may be anovulatory. 2, 3
Clinical Interpretation of Your Pattern
Your hormone pattern suggests possible anovulation or significant cycle irregularity rather than an approaching fertile window:
Progesterone elevation before ovulation (as seen in your CD9 value of 6.6 ng/mL) typically indicates the cycle will not result in normal ovulation. 2, 3
The Standard Days Method identifies days 8-19 as the potential fertile window in regular 26-32 day cycles, but this method assumes regular ovulatory cycles, which your hormone pattern does not support. 1
Research using quantitative hormone monitoring shows that ovulation is confirmed by a sustained PdG rise occurring an average of 2.6 days after the LH surge, but your LH has not surged and your progesterone is already elevated. 2
Recommended Next Steps
Continue daily hormone monitoring to determine if this cycle will produce an ovulatory pattern or remains anovulatory. 2
Watch for these changes that would indicate approaching fertility:
- LH rising above 5-10 IU/L and continuing upward toward 20-40 IU/L. 2, 4, 3
- E1g increasing to 15-30+ ng/mL. 2, 3
- Progesterone dropping back below 5 ng/mL (if currently elevated due to measurement artifact rather than true luteinization). 2, 3
Consider evaluation for ovulatory dysfunction if this pattern persists across multiple cycles, including assessment of conditions like PCOS, hypothalamic amenorrhea, or hyperprolactinemia with measurement of LH, FSH, prolactin, and mid-luteal progesterone. 5
Common Pitfall to Avoid
Do not assume you are in the fertile window simply because you are on cycle day 9. Ovulation timing varies widely (days 9-20 in a 28-day cycle), and your specific hormone values indicate you have not yet entered the fertile phase and may not ovulate this cycle at all. 1, 6