Myopia Prevalence in India
The overall prevalence of myopia in Indian school children (ages 5-15 years) is 7.5%, with urban children showing significantly higher rates (8.5%) compared to rural children (6.1%), and projections indicate this will reach approximately 48% by 2050 in urban populations if current trends continue. 1, 2
Current Prevalence Data
School-Aged Children (5-15 years)
Overall crude prevalence across India: 7.5% (95% CI: 6.5-8.5%) based on meta-analysis of nearly 286,000 children over four decades 1
Urban children: 8.5% (95% CI: 7.1-9.9%), with the highest rates in 11-15 year age group at 15.0% in the last decade 1
Rural children: 6.1% (95% CI: 4.5-7.7%), though this has increased significantly from 4.6% to 6.8% in the last decade, reflecting changing rural environments 1
Regional Variations
North India (Gurugram, Haryana) urban schools: 21.1% prevalence, with higher rates in older children aged 9-12 years (27%) and boys (25%) compared to girls 3
Rural North India (Haryana): 6.4% (95% CI: 5.2%, 7.8%), with striking disparity between private schools (10.1%) versus government schools (1.4%) 4
The mean myopic spherical equivalent error ranges from -1.61D to -1.94D across different studies 3, 4
Temporal Trends and Future Projections
Historical Progression
- Urban Indian children showed an increase from 4.44% in 1999 to 21.15% in 2019, representing a slope of 0.8% increase per year (4.05% every 5 years) 2
Projected Future Prevalence
Based on linear regression modeling, myopia prevalence in urban Indian children (5-15 years) is predicted to reach:
31.89% by 2030
40.01% by 2040
48.14% by 2050 2
Due to generational effects (myopia persisting lifelong once developed), there will be an overall 10.53% increase across all age groups over the next three decades (2020-2050) 2
Incidence and Progression
Annual incidence of new myopia: 3.4% with mean dioptric change of -1.09 ± 0.55D 5
Progression occurs in 49.2% of existing myopes with mean dioptric change of -0.27 ± 0.42D annually 5
Younger children show significantly higher incidence compared to older children, and girls have higher incidence than boys 5
Key Risk Factors
Modifiable Behavioral Factors
Studying >4 hours per day is positively associated with myopia 3
Computer/video/mobile gaming >2 hours per day significantly increases risk 3, 5
Television watching is associated with progression 5
Private school attendance shows strong positive association (particularly in rural areas where private school children have 7-fold higher prevalence than government school children) 4
Protective Factors
- Outdoor activities >1.5-2 hours per day show strong protective effect with inverse association (OR: 0.01 [0.00 to 0.06]) 3, 4, 5
Unmet Need
- 75% unmet need for spectacles exists in rural populations, indicating significant gaps in access to optical correction 4
Clinical Implications
The data reveals India is experiencing a myopia epidemic similar to East Asian countries, with particularly alarming increases in urban areas and among children attending private schools. The significant rural-urban divide is narrowing as rural environments change, and the projected prevalence approaching 50% by 2050 represents a major public health crisis requiring immediate intervention strategies focused on increasing outdoor time and reducing near-work activities 1, 2, 4.