Ovulation Confirmation and Timing
Based on your LH peak of 45 IU/L on cycle day 13 and the subsequent decline to 27.9 IU/L by 5:50 pm on day 14, you most likely ovulated between the late evening of day 13 and midday of day 14, approximately 28–36 hours after your LH surge began. 1, 2, 3
Did Ovulation Occur?
Yes, your hormone pattern strongly indicates ovulation occurred. The evidence includes:
- Your LH peaked at 45 IU/L on CD13, representing a clear surge well above baseline (your CD11 LH was only 3.5 IU/L) 4
- Your estrone-3-glucuronide (E1G) peaked at 288.2 µg/24h on CD13, then declined to 197.8 on CD14, which is the characteristic pre-ovulatory estrogen drop that occurs 12 hours before ovulation 2
- Your pregnanediol-glucuronide (PDG) rose from 3.1 on CD13 to 4.7 on CD14, indicating early corpus luteum formation and progesterone production that only occurs after follicle rupture 5, 6
When Did Ovulation Occur?
Ovulation most likely occurred between late CD13 (approximately 10 pm) and midday CD14 (around noon).
The timing is based on:
- Ovulation occurs 28–36 hours after the beginning of the LH rise, not the peak 1, 2, 3
- The onset of the LH rise is a more accurate predictor than the LH peak itself 3
- Your LH was still 3.5 on CD11, rose to 8.8 on CD12, and peaked at 45 on CD13, suggesting the surge began sometime on CD12 4
- The minimum time between LH surge onset and follicular rupture is 22 hours, with most ovulations occurring between 34–39 hours after surge onset 3
- Your pelvic pressure at 5:50 pm on CD14 that resolved within 2 hours may have been mittelschmerz (ovulation pain), though this would place ovulation slightly later in the window 2
Oocyte Viability Window
The egg is no longer viable as of 9:30 pm on CD14.
- After ovulation, the oocyte remains viable for only 12–24 hours 6
- If ovulation occurred in the optimal window (late CD13 to midday CD14), the egg would have lost viability by late evening CD14 6
- The luteal phase has begun, during which conception is biologically implausible because the egg has already been released and its viability window has closed 6
When to Begin Progesterone Supplementation
Do not start progesterone supplementation yet—wait until approximately CD20–21 (7 days post-ovulation) to confirm luteal phase insufficiency first.
Critical timing considerations:
- Your current PDG of 4.7 µg/24h on CD14 is only slightly above your baseline of 3.2, which is expected immediately post-ovulation 5
- The gold standard for confirming adequate luteal function is mid-luteal progesterone measurement approximately 7 days after ovulation (around CD20–21 in your case) 5, 7
- Serum progesterone ≥5 ng/mL (≥16 nmol/L) or significantly elevated urinary PDG at mid-luteal phase confirms robust ovulation and adequate corpus luteum function 5, 7
- Starting progesterone too early (before confirming deficiency) can interfere with natural corpus luteum function and is not evidence-based 5
Recommended approach:
- Recheck your PDG around CD20–21 (approximately 7 days post-ovulation) 5
- If mid-luteal PDG remains low or fails to show the expected significant rise from baseline, this would confirm luteal phase insufficiency and justify progesterone supplementation 5, 7
- Progesterone supplementation, if needed, would typically begin 3 days post-ovulation in subsequent cycles, not the current cycle 5
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
- Do not assume ovulation occurs on day 14—only 12.7% of women actually ovulate on their estimated day, and 45% of women trying to conceive incorrectly estimate their fertile window 8
- Do not rely solely on a single hormone measurement—your comprehensive tracking of E1G, PDG, and LH across multiple days provides much more reliable ovulation confirmation than isolated values 4
- Do not start progesterone supplementation without confirming luteal insufficiency first through mid-luteal phase testing, as premature supplementation lacks evidence and may be counterproductive 5, 7