Ovulation Timing and Fertility Window Assessment
Based on your LH surge peaking at 45 IU on cycle day 13, you ovulated approximately 24–36 hours later, placing ovulation on cycle day 14 (likely around midday to evening). 1, 2, 3
Evidence of Ovulation
Your hormone pattern strongly confirms ovulation occurred:
LH surge dynamics: Your LH peaked at 45 IU on CD13 (FMU) and remained elevated at 45 on CD14 (FMU), then declined to 27.9 by CD14 evening, demonstrating the characteristic post-surge decline that confirms ovulation has occurred. 1, 2
PDG (progesterone metabolite) rise: Your PDG increased from baseline 3.2 μg/mL (CD5) to 4.7 μg/mL on CD14, marking the beginning of the post-ovulatory rise. The progesterone rise from baseline always occurs after ovulation and is the most reliable confirmation marker. 2, 3
E1G (estrogen) pattern: Your E1G peaked at 288.2 ng/mL on CD13 then declined to 197.8 ng/mL on CD14, consistent with the pre-ovulatory estrogen surge that precedes ovulation by approximately 0.5–1 day. 3
Pelvic pressure at 5:50 PM on CD14: This symptom coinciding with the hormonal timeline and resolving within 2 hours is consistent with ovulation occurring during this window. 1
Oocyte Viability Window
The egg remains viable for approximately 12–24 hours after ovulation. 1
Since ovulation likely occurred on CD14 (midday to evening based on your pressure symptom at 5:50 PM), the oocyte viability window extends until approximately CD15 midday to evening. 1
Intercourse on CD15 evening (tonight at 9:30 PM) is at the very tail end of the fertile window and has significantly reduced conception probability compared to intercourse before ovulation. 4
Sperm can survive 3–5 days in fertile cervical mucus, but the egg's 12–24 hour lifespan is the limiting factor once ovulation has occurred. 4
Progesterone Supplementation Timing
Begin progesterone supplementation on cycle day 16–17 (3 days post-ovulation). 1
Starting progesterone 3 days after ovulation allows the corpus luteum to establish baseline progesterone production without pharmacologic interference. 1
Your PDG should continue rising over the next several days; monitoring PDG levels on CD17–21 can help assess luteal phase adequacy before starting supplementation. 5, 6
A sustained PDG level above 5 μg/mL (ideally 7 μg/mL or higher) during the implantation window (approximately CD21–24 in your cycle) indicates adequate luteal function. 5, 6
Critical Timing Summary
- Ovulation occurred: CD14 (approximately midday to evening)
- Fertile window closed: CD15 evening (tonight) is the absolute last opportunity, though probability is low
- Start progesterone: CD16–17 (2–3 days from now)
- Monitor PDG rise: Continue testing through CD17–21 to confirm adequate luteal phase before supplementation
Important Caveats
Your FSH variability (8.7 on CD5, 12.2 on CD7, 2.4 on CD9) is within normal range for early follicular phase fluctuations and does not indicate ovarian dysfunction. 1
If you do not achieve pregnancy this cycle, consider timing intercourse earlier in the fertile window (starting when E1G begins rising, typically CD9–11 in your pattern) to maximize conception probability. 4
The optimal intercourse pattern is every 1–2 days beginning when E1G rises until after the LH surge, not waiting until ovulation has already occurred. 4