COVID-19 Vaccine for Fall 2025: Expected Updates from 2024 Formula
The COVID-19 vaccine for fall 2025 will likely not be the same as the vaccine for fall 2024, as vaccines are typically updated annually to target currently circulating SARS-CoV-2 strains, similar to how the 2024-2025 vaccines were updated to target the JN.1 lineage variants that replaced the previous XBB.1.5 formulation. 1
Current Vaccine Formulation (2024-2025)
The 2024-2025 COVID-19 vaccines have been specifically formulated to target:
- Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech: Updated to target the KP.2 strain (JN.1 lineage) 1
- Novavax: Updated to target the JN.1 strain 1
These represent a significant change from the 2023-2024 vaccines which contained the XBB.1.5 component 2.
Why Annual Updates Are Necessary
Annual updates to COVID-19 vaccines are necessary for several reasons:
Viral Evolution: SARS-CoV-2 continues to evolve, with new variants emerging that may partially escape immunity from previous vaccines 1
Waning Immunity: Vaccine effectiveness against COVID-19 declines over time:
Targeting Circulating Strains: The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) recommends updating vaccines to match currently circulating strains 4
Historical Pattern of Annual Updates
The pattern of annual COVID-19 vaccine updates is now well established:
- 2022-2023: Bivalent vaccines targeting original strain plus Omicron BA.4/BA.5
- 2023-2024: Monovalent XBB.1.5 vaccines 2
- 2024-2025: JN.1 lineage vaccines (KP.2 or JN.1 strains) 1
Implications for Clinical Practice
Healthcare providers should:
- Anticipate new vaccine formulations for fall 2025 that will target the predominant circulating variants at that time
- Recognize that the 2024-2025 vaccines are specifically labeled as such (e.g., "Moderna COVID-19 Vaccine (2024-2025 Formula)") 5
- Understand that vaccination recommendations will likely continue to prioritize high-risk populations, including adults ≥65 years and immunocompromised individuals 1
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
- Assuming previous vaccination is sufficient: The effectiveness of previous COVID-19 vaccines wanes over time and may not protect against newer variants 1
- Using outdated vaccine formulations: The FDA no longer authorizes previous formulations once new ones are approved 5
- Overlooking high-risk populations: Adults aged ≥65 years and immunocompromised individuals remain at highest risk for severe outcomes and may benefit most from updated vaccines 1
COVID-19 continues to cause significant morbidity and mortality, with thousands of hospitalizations and hundreds of deaths weekly in the United States 1. Annual vaccine updates remain a critical strategy for reducing this burden.