What is the percentage chance of developing a kidney stone?

Medical Advisory BoardAll articles are reviewed for accuracy by our Medical Advisory Board
Educational purpose only • Exercise caution as content is pending human review
Article Review Status
Submitted
Under Review
Approved

Last updated: September 18, 2025View editorial policy

Personalize

Help us tailor your experience

Which best describes you? Your choice helps us use language that's most understandable for you.

Kidney Stone Prevalence and Risk

The prevalence of kidney stones in the general population ranges from 1% to 20%, with high-income countries such as the USA having rates exceeding 10% 1.

The lifetime risk of developing a kidney stone is approximately 8.8% in the United States, with men having a higher risk (10.6%) compared to women (7.1%) 2.

Risk Factors and Recurrence Rates

The risk of kidney stone formation varies significantly based on several factors:

Recurrence Rates

  • First-time stone formers have a 26% chance of recurrence within 5 years 1
  • Among recurrent stone formers, approximately 50% will experience only one recurrence, while 10% develop highly recurrent disease 1
  • The recurrence rate can be as high as 50% within the first 5 years of the initial stone episode 3

Demographic Risk Factors

  • Men are more affected than women (10.6% vs 7.1%), though this gender gap is narrowing 1
  • Family history significantly increases risk - individuals with a family history have 2.57 times higher risk of stone formation compared to those without 4
  • Risk increases with age 2

Medical Risk Factors

  • Obesity and metabolic syndrome 1, 2
  • Diabetes and hypertension 2
  • Renal and ureteral anatomic abnormalities 2
  • Genetic factors play a significant role, with estimated heritability of 45% 1
  • Monogenic forms are seen in 12-21% of children/young adults and 1-11% of adults 1

Stone Composition and Types

The most common types of kidney stones are:

  • Calcium oxalate (61% of stones) 2
  • Calcium phosphate (15%) 2
  • Uric acid (12%) 2

Prevention Strategies

For those at risk of kidney stones, the following preventive measures are recommended:

Fluid Intake

  • Increase fluid intake to achieve at least 2.5 liters of urine output daily 5
  • This reduces concentration of lithogenic factors in urine

Dietary Modifications

  • Maintain normal dietary calcium intake (1,000-1,200 mg per day) 5
  • Limit sodium intake to less than 2,300 mg daily 5
  • Avoid calcium supplements (increases stone risk by 20% compared to dietary calcium) 5
  • Limit intake of oxalate-rich foods, especially for calcium oxalate stone formers 5
  • Limit animal protein intake to 5-7 servings of meat, fish, or poultry per week 5
  • Avoid sugar-sweetened beverages and those acidified with phosphoric acid 5

Monitoring and Follow-up

For those who have already developed kidney stones:

  • Annual 24-hour urine specimen collection to assess adherence and metabolic response 5
  • Periodic blood testing to assess for adverse effects of pharmacologic therapy 5
  • Regular urinalysis to assess for crystalluria 5

Clinical Implications

Understanding the prevalence and risk factors for kidney stone formation is crucial for implementing appropriate preventive strategies. The high recurrence rate (up to 50% within 5 years) underscores the importance of long-term preventive measures, particularly for those with a family history or previous stone episodes.

For high-risk individuals, comprehensive metabolic testing is recommended to identify specific risk factors that can guide personalized preventive strategies 1.

Bold text indicates the direct answer to your question about the percentage chance of developing a kidney stone.

References

Guideline

Guideline Directed Topic Overview

Dr.Oracle Medical Advisory Board & Editors, 2025

Research

Kidney Disease: Kidney Stones.

FP essentials, 2021

Research

Kidney stones.

Nature reviews. Disease primers, 2016

Research

Family history and risk of kidney stones.

Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN, 1997

Guideline

Kidney Stone Prevention and Management

Praxis Medical Insights: Practical Summaries of Clinical Guidelines, 2025

Professional Medical Disclaimer

This information is intended for healthcare professionals. Any medical decision-making should rely on clinical judgment and independently verified information. The content provided herein does not replace professional discretion and should be considered supplementary to established clinical guidelines. Healthcare providers should verify all information against primary literature and current practice standards before application in patient care. Dr.Oracle assumes no liability for clinical decisions based on this content.

Have a follow-up question?

Our Medical A.I. is used by practicing medical doctors at top research institutions around the world. Ask any follow up question and get world-class guideline-backed answers instantly.