What is the lifetime risk of needing Total Knee Arthroplasty (TKA) after Anterior Cruciate Ligament (ACL) reconstruction and meniscus repair?

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Last updated: October 25, 2025View editorial policy

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Lifetime Risk of Total Knee Arthroplasty After ACL Reconstruction and Meniscus Repair

Patients who undergo ACL reconstruction with meniscus repair have a significantly increased lifetime risk of requiring total knee arthroplasty (TKA) compared to the general population, with a cumulative incidence of 1.4% at 15 years post-reconstruction, which is seven times higher than matched controls (0.2%). 1

Risk Factors for Osteoarthritis Development After ACL Reconstruction

  • ACL reconstruction with medial meniscectomy increases osteoarthritis odds 3.14 times compared to ACL reconstruction alone (95% CI: 2.20 to 4.48) 2, 3
  • ACL reconstruction with partial meniscectomy increases osteoarthritis odds 1.87 times compared to ACL reconstruction alone (95% CI: 1.45 to 2.42) 2, 3
  • Cartilage injury at the time of ACL reconstruction increases osteoarthritis odds 2.31 times compared to no or less severe injury (95% CI: 1.35 to 3.94) 2, 3
  • Multiple structure injuries (ACL with meniscal injuries) present an even higher risk for osteoarthritis development compared to single structure injuries 4
  • Following ACL injury, approximately 20% of patients will develop osteoarthritis regardless of treatment 5

Patient-Specific Risk Factors for TKA After ACL Reconstruction

  • Age ≥50 years at time of ACL reconstruction significantly increases TKA risk (hazard ratio: 37.28) 1
  • Female sex increases TKA risk (hazard ratio: 1.58) 1
  • Higher comorbidity score (≥5 points) increases TKA risk (hazard ratio: 5.91) 1
  • Male sex (hazard ratio: 0.63) and age <20 years at ACL reconstruction (hazard ratio: 0.07) are protective factors against requiring future TKA 1

Surgical Factors Affecting TKA Risk

  • Low surgeon annual volume of ACL reconstructions (≤12 cases/year) increases subsequent TKA risk (hazard ratio: 2.53) 1
  • ACL reconstruction performed in university-affiliated hospitals increases TKA risk (hazard ratio: 1.51) 1
  • Concurrent meniscal repair or debridement at time of ACL reconstruction does not appear to increase arthroscopy risk 1

Challenges of TKA After ACL Reconstruction

  • TKA following ACL reconstruction has longer operative times compared to primary TKA (88 vs. 73 minutes) 6
  • Risk of reoperation after TKA is 5.5 times higher in patients with prior ACL reconstruction 6
  • 50% of patients with prior ACL reconstruction require implant removal during TKA 6
  • Tibial exposure during TKA can be more difficult after ACL reconstruction, requiring tibial tubercle osteotomy in 14% of cases 7
  • Post-operative stiffness requiring manipulation under anesthesia is more common after TKA in patients with prior ACL reconstruction (23% vs. 0% in controls) 7
  • Performing TKA within 9 months of any knee arthroscopy increases complication risk 8

Clinical Implications

  • Despite the increased risk, the absolute lifetime risk of requiring TKA after ACL reconstruction with meniscus repair remains relatively low at 1.4% after 15 years 1
  • The most common complications after TKA in patients with prior ACL reconstruction are instability and stiffness, suggesting difficulties in achieving proper soft tissue balance 5
  • Male patients and those with prior ACL reconstruction specifically for ACL injury have higher complication rates after subsequent TKA 8
  • Patients should be counseled about the increased lifetime risk of TKA, particularly those with additional risk factors such as older age, female sex, and higher comorbidity scores 1

Professional Medical Disclaimer

This information is intended for healthcare professionals. Any medical decision-making should rely on clinical judgment and independently verified information. The content provided herein does not replace professional discretion and should be considered supplementary to established clinical guidelines. Healthcare providers should verify all information against primary literature and current practice standards before application in patient care. Dr.Oracle assumes no liability for clinical decisions based on this content.

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