What is the probability of stroke recurrence according to the modified Rankin Scale (mRS)?

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Last updated: April 3, 2025View editorial policy

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From the Guidelines

The probability of stroke recurrence is significantly influenced by the underlying stroke mechanism, with the risk varying greatly from >10% to <1% within 90 days after a first stroke, as noted in the 2021 guideline for the prevention of stroke in patients with stroke and transient ischemic attack 1. The risk of recurrent stroke is a critical consideration in the management of patients who have experienced a stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA). According to the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association guidelines, the risk of stroke within 90 days after a first stroke is approximately 5%, but this risk can vary significantly based on the stroke mechanism, such as symptomatic carotid stenosis and atrial fibrillation (AF) 1.

Key Factors Influencing Stroke Recurrence

  • The mechanism of the initial stroke plays a crucial role in determining the risk of recurrence, with certain mechanisms like symptomatic carotid stenosis and AF posing a higher risk 1.
  • Timely evaluation and identification of modifiable risk factors are essential for effective secondary prevention, as emphasized in the 2021 guideline for the prevention of stroke in patients with stroke and transient ischemic attack 1.
  • Comprehensive secondary prevention strategies, including antiplatelet therapy, statins, blood pressure control, and lifestyle modifications, are critical in reducing the risk of recurrent stroke.

Management and Prevention

To mitigate the risk of recurrent stroke, it is essential to implement comprehensive secondary prevention measures, including timely evaluation of stroke mechanism, identification of modifiable risk factors, and implementation of specific treatments with proven efficacy, as recommended by the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association 1. Regular follow-up and monitoring are also vital to assess compliance with treatment plans and adjust therapy as needed, particularly for patients with higher disability scores or those at increased risk of recurrence. By prioritizing these strategies, healthcare providers can significantly reduce the risk of stroke recurrence and improve outcomes for patients who have experienced a stroke or TIA.

From the Research

Probability of Stroke Recurrence According to the Modified Rankin Scale

  • The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) is a widely used measure to assess functional outcomes in stroke patients 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
  • Studies have shown that the mRS score is a significant predictor of long-term survival and functional recovery after stroke 2, 5.
  • A higher mRS score is associated with a higher risk of death and disability, and a lower score is associated with better functional outcomes 2, 3, 5.
  • The mRS has been validated as a reliable and useful measure of functional status after acute ischemic stroke, with good agreement between the structured, simplified mRS questionnaire and the standard mRS 4.
  • Repeated measures of mRS scores over time can provide valuable information on functional recovery and may improve trial precision in identifying associations and effects 5.
  • The mRS, along with other scales such as the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) and the modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction (mTICI), can be used as predictive tools for stroke patients' functionality and autonomy 6.
  • Factors associated with functional recovery, as measured by the mRS, include age, prestroke history of depression, relationship status, living situation, independence, and stroke treatment location 5.

Professional Medical Disclaimer

This information is intended for healthcare professionals. Any medical decision-making should rely on clinical judgment and independently verified information. The content provided herein does not replace professional discretion and should be considered supplementary to established clinical guidelines. Healthcare providers should verify all information against primary literature and current practice standards before application in patient care. Dr.Oracle assumes no liability for clinical decisions based on this content.

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