Timing of Ovulation Based on Your Hormone Data
Based on your LH surge pattern, you most likely ovulated in the early morning hours of CD14 (approximately 24-36 hours after your LH surge began on CD13), and the egg remains viable for approximately 12-24 hours after release. 1, 2
When Your LH Surge Began
Your LH surge clearly started on CD13 evening (6:15 PM), when your LH jumped from 12.3 (FMU) to 26.7. 1, 2
- The onset of the LH rise is the most accurate marker for predicting ovulation timing, more reliable than the LH peak itself 2
- Your LH continued rising through CD14, peaking at 45 at an unspecified time, then declining to 22 by 7:30 PM and 12.1 by 10:30 PM 2
When Ovulation Occurred
Ovulation most likely occurred between 22-36 hours after your LH surge began on CD13 evening, placing it in the early morning hours of CD14 (approximately 4:00 AM - 6:00 PM on CD14). 1, 2
- Research shows ovulation occurs 28-36 hours after the beginning of the LH rise, or 8-20 hours after the LH peak 1
- Laparoscopic studies confirm that no ovulation occurs before 34 hours post-LH surge onset, but 50% of women ovulate between 37-39 hours 2
- Your cramps at 2:00 AM on CD15 (the "pulling achy cramps" lasting one hour) likely represent post-ovulatory cramping, not the moment of ovulation itself 1
Supporting Evidence from Your Hormones
Your estrogen (E1G) and progesterone (PDG) patterns confirm ovulation timing:
- E1G peaked at 258.6 on CD15, which is typical as estrogen drops sharply 12 hours before ovulation then rises again post-ovulation 1
- PDG remained low (1.1-1.6) through CD15, which is expected since progesterone doesn't rise significantly until 24-48 hours after ovulation 1
- Your declining LH on CD14 evening and CD15 (from 45 down to 13.2-18.6) confirms the surge had passed 3
Egg Viability Window
The egg remains viable for fertilization for only 12-24 hours after release. 1
- This is a critical but narrow window
- Sperm can survive 3-5 days in fertile cervical mucus, which is why intercourse before ovulation is actually more effective than after 4
- Your egg white cervical mucus (EWCM) on CD13-14 provided the optimal environment for sperm survival 1
Clinical Interpretation of Your Symptoms
Your physical symptoms align perfectly with the ovulation timeline:
- EWCM on CD13-14: Peak fertility sign occurring at the right time 1
- Cramps on CD14 and 2:00 AM CD15: Common periovulatory symptoms, though the CD15 cramps were likely post-ovulatory 1
- Nipple sensitivity, erect nipples, flushed cheeks, body warmth on CD15: These are post-ovulatory progesterone-mediated symptoms 1
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
- Don't assume the LH peak is the moment of ovulation - ovulation occurs 8-20 hours after the peak, not at the peak itself 1
- Don't rely solely on cramps to time ovulation - they can occur before, during, or after ovulation and are not precise markers 1
- Don't wait for basal body temperature shift - this is a retrospective marker that confirms ovulation already occurred 1-2 days prior 1
Optimal Timing for Conception
For future reference, intercourse or insemination should occur within 24-30 hours after LH surge detection for optimal pregnancy rates. 5