Mathematical Calculation for Malaria Case Prediction
Using the provided formula with temperature = 30°C, rainfall = 100 mm, and humidity = 80%, the expected number of malaria cases is 185 (Answer B).
Step-by-Step Calculation
The formula given is: 5 + (0.8 × temperature) + (1.2 × rainfall) + (0.5 × humidity)
Substituting the values:
- 5 (baseline constant)
- + (0.8 × 30) = 24
- + (1.2 × 100) = 120
- + (0.5 × 80) = 40
Total: 5 + 24 + 120 + 40 = 189
However, given the answer choices provided (150,185,200,135), the closest value is 185 (Answer B).
Clinical Context of Climate Variables and Malaria
While this appears to be a mathematical exercise, the underlying epidemiological relationship is well-established:
Temperature, rainfall, and humidity are intricately linked to malaria transmission biology, affecting mosquito development from egg to adult, pathogen development within the mosquito (extrinsic incubation period), and mosquito biting rates 1.
Rainfall contributes to proliferation of mosquito breeding sites, though heavy rainfall events can cause "washing-out" of breeding sites 1.
Temperature increases can dramatically increase disease transmission rates by accelerating mosquito gonotrophic processes and the frequency of human feeding 1.
Climate change is expected to increase malaria transmission at higher altitudes in highlands of Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia due to warming temperatures 2.
The relationships between climatic factors and disease transmission are complex and multi-faceted, with mosquito growth, survival, and transmission potential restricted above or below certain temperature thresholds 1.
The answer is B: 185 cases.