When did I ovulate, given my luteinizing hormone (LH) levels, estrogen (E1g) levels, and progesterone (PdG) levels, and why do I still have egg white cervical mucus (EWCM) on cycle day 15?

Timing of Ovulation Based on Your Hormone Data

You most likely ovulated in the early morning hours of CD14 (approximately 2-6am on CD14), roughly 28-36 hours after your LH surge began on the evening of CD13. 1

Analysis of Your Ovulation Timeline

LH Surge Pattern

• Your LH surge began on CD13 evening (6:15pm) when LH jumped from 12.3 to 26.7, marking the start of the preovulatory LH rise 1
• LH peaked at CD14 morning (9:30am) at 45, representing your maximum LH level 2
• Ovulation typically occurs 28-36 hours after the beginning of the LH rise or 8-20 hours after the LH peak 1
• Based on your surge starting CD13 evening (~6pm), ovulation would occur approximately CD14 night to CD15 early morning 1, 2
• However, your CD15 2am cramping (pulling, achy sensations lasting one hour) strongly suggests ovulation occurred around that time, which aligns with the 8-20 hour window after your 9:30am LH peak 1

Supporting Hormonal Evidence

• E1g (estrogen) pattern: Rose progressively from 176.2 (CD13) → 215.1 (CD14) → 258.6 (CD15), showing the expected preovulatory estrogen rise over 3-4 days 1
• PdG (progesterone metabolite) rise: Your PdG remained low at 1.6 (CD13), 1.5 (CD14), then dropped to 1.1 (CD15 FMU), which is expected since progesterone rises after ovulation occurs, typically showing a 2-3 fold increase above baseline within 24-48 hours post-ovulation 1, 3
• The reciprocal relationship of falling LH (from 45 → 22 → 12.1 on CD14) with rising estrogen supports imminent ovulation 1

Why You Still Have EWCM on CD15 at 11pm

Cervical mucus can persist for 24-48 hours after ovulation occurs, so having EWCM on CD15 evening is completely normal and does not indicate you haven't ovulated yet. 4

Physiological Explanation

• Cervical mucus production is stimulated by estrogen, which peaked on CD15 at 258.6 4
• Your estrogen remained elevated through CD15, maintaining mucus production even after ovulation 1
• The loss of periovular mucus symptoms typically occurs 1-2 days after ovulation, not immediately 1
• Your other symptoms (nipple sensitivity, erect nipples, flushed cheeks, body warmth) on CD15 are consistent with the early luteal phase when both estrogen and progesterone are present 5

Regarding Progesterone Supplementation Timing

The recommendation to have intercourse on the night of PdG rise after starting progesterone supplementation is likely aimed at ensuring intercourse occurs during the viable egg window while supporting early luteal phase. 3

Critical Timing Considerations

• The egg is viable for only 12-24 hours after ovulation 1
• Based on your data, if you ovulated around CD15 2am, the egg would be viable through approximately CD15 evening to CD16 morning 1
• Progesterone supplementation is often started after confirmed ovulation to support the luteal phase and potential implantation 3
• The PdG rise (which you should see on CD16-17 FMU) confirms ovulation occurred, and intercourse around that time ensures sperm are present during the tail end of egg viability 3

Is the Egg Viable on CD16?

Possibly, but marginally - the egg is likely at the very end of its viability window by CD16. 1

Egg Viability Timeline

• If ovulation occurred at CD15 2am (most likely based on your cramping), the egg would be viable until approximately CD15 evening (12 hours) to CD16 morning (24 hours) 1
• Sperm can survive 3-5 days in fertile cervical mucus, so intercourse on CD13-14 would be optimal 3
• The research shows an average of 2.6 days from LH surge to PdG rise, and your LH surge was CD13 evening, making CD15-16 the expected ovulation timeframe 3
• For optimal conception chances, intercourse should occur before or on the day of ovulation, not after 3

Practical Recommendation

• CD16 intercourse is worth attempting if you haven't had intercourse in the prior 48 hours, as there's a small chance the egg remains viable into early CD16 1
• However, CD13-15 would have been the optimal window based on your hormone patterns 3
• Monitor your PdG on CD16-17 FMU - you should see a rise to confirm ovulation, and ideally sustained levels >5 μg/mL through the implantation window (CD19-24) 3