Expressing Disease Prevalence: Choosing the Right Multiplier
Express prevalence using the multiplier that makes the resulting number fall between 1 and 100 for optimal interpretability—use per 100 (percentage) for common diseases and per 1,000 or higher for rare conditions. 1
The Core Principle
The choice of multiplier (×100, ×1,000, ×10,000, or ×100,000) is driven by practical communication rather than statistical rules:
- Calculate the raw proportion first: Divide the number of cases by the total population 1
- Select the multiplier that yields interpretable numbers: The goal is to produce values that are easy to understand and compare 1, 2
When to Use Each Multiplier
Use Per 100 (Percentage) When:
- The disease is relatively common (prevalence ≥1%): For example, expressing SARS-CoV-2 prevalence as 0.5%, 1%, or 2% is standard practice 1
- The resulting number is ≥1: A prevalence of 0.5% is more intuitive than "5 per 1,000" 1
- Communicating with general audiences: Percentages are universally understood 1
Use Per 1,000 When:
- The disease is uncommon (prevalence 0.1% to <1%): This prevents awkward decimals like "0.32%" 1
- Presenting absolute risk data: The AGA guideline consistently presents outcomes as "per 1,000 people" when discussing test performance 1
- The numbers remain manageable: For example, "3 per 1,000" is clearer than "0.3%" 1
Use Per 10,000 or 100,000 When:
- The disease is rare: Ménière's disease prevalence ranges from 3.5 to 513 per 100,000, making this the appropriate denominator 1
- Epidemiologic surveillance: Public health reporting often uses per 100,000 for standardization across populations 1
- The condition affects <0.1% of the population: Using percentages would require multiple decimal places 1
Practical Algorithm for Decision-Making
Step 1: Calculate the raw prevalence (cases ÷ population) 1
Step 2: Apply this decision tree:
- If raw prevalence ≥0.01 (≥1%) → multiply by 100 and express as percentage 1
- If raw prevalence is 0.001 to <0.01 (0.1% to <1%) → multiply by 1,000 1
- If raw prevalence is 0.0001 to <0.001 (0.01% to <0.1%) → multiply by 10,000 1
- If raw prevalence <0.0001 (<0.01%) → multiply by 100,000 1
Step 3: Verify the final number is between 1 and 100 for optimal readability 1
Common Pitfalls to Avoid
- Mixing denominators within the same report: Choose one multiplier and use it consistently for all comparisons 1
- Using percentages for very rare diseases: Expressing prevalence as "0.0082%" is less clear than "8.2 per 100,000" 1
- Ignoring your audience: Clinical contexts may favor percentages, while epidemiologic reports typically use per 100,000 1
- Forgetting that the multiplier affects interpretation of confidence intervals: When prevalence is 0.5% with a test specificity of 94%, expressing results "out of 1,000 people" makes the 60 false positives more tangible than saying "6%" 1
Context-Specific Considerations
For Diagnostic Test Performance:
- Low-prevalence settings (<0.5%): Express as percentage but present absolute numbers per 1,000 to illustrate false positive burden 1, 2
- The CDC approach: When discussing positive predictive value in populations with 2% prevalence, results are shown both as percentages (44% PPV) and as absolute numbers (16 true positives out of 36 positive tests per 1,000 screened) 2
For Population Health Reporting:
- Standardize to per 100,000 for cross-population comparisons, as demonstrated in Ménière's disease epidemiology where estimates ranged from 3.5 to 513 per 100,000 across different geographic regions 1